Economic context

At this stage, the world economy is showing resilience in the Western countries despite inflation and war on Europe's doorstep. However, a more detailed analysis suggests a slowdown ahead as central bank rate hikes have barely begun. Although they have begun to fall, delivery times remain historically long #1, limiting business output. Some commodity prices are beginning to stabilise, but food inflation is creating severe strains in emerging countries, leading Sri Lanka to default.
Against a backdrop of economic slowdown, fears of recession and the risk of the FED overreacting to inflation, it seems difficult to find good news, except for the cautious positioning of investors and a bond market that has integrated the rate hikes.

Economic outlook....